Can stronger regional checks on Tehran bring balance - and eventually peace - to the Persian Gulf?

Saudi Arabia tried to keep its distance from the war with Iran. 

Now, increasingly, the conflict is coming to Saudi Arabia.

Attacks on airports, energy facilities and shipping have narrowed Riyadh’s room for maneuver. The kingdom still has powerful reasons to pursue diplomacy. But its growing military involvement against Iran-backed Houthis, alongside renewed cooperation with regional partners, suggests Saudi leaders increasingly see force as necessary to secure a durable peace.

That could become an important development in the conflict: Iran’s neighbors assuming more responsibility for checking its power.

Before the war, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman explicitly told Tehran that Saudi territory and airspace would not be available for military action against Iran. His January message emphasized dialogue and regional stability. Saudi Arabia wanted to protect its economic transformation from another destructive confrontation.

That calculation was understandable. Airports, investment conferences and dependable oil exports are essential to the kingdom’s ambitions. Persistent insecurity threatens the confidence needed to build an economy beyond petroleum.

Yet restraint has failed to provide adequate protection.

This week, a Saudi diplomat publicly accused Iran of encouraging Houthi attacks and violating the commitments underlying the countries’ 2023 rapprochement. Saudi Arabia has maintained communication with Tehran, but its language reflects deteriorating trust.

Its actions have hardened, too. Saudi forces struck Houthi oil facilities this week. Renewed cooperation with the United Arab Emirates could provide additional support for Yemeni forces confronting the movement, although divisions among those forces remain a serious obstacle.

Egypt has also signaled readiness to help defend Saudi Arabia if requested, with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi seeking parliamentary authorization for possible action. That remains conditional, but it indicates the potential for broader regional participation.

The opportunity is to build a regional balance that gives diplomacy a firmer foundation.

For years, Iran has cultivated relationships with armed groups capable of threatening neighboring governments while complicating retaliation against Tehran itself. Local movements have their own interests, but Iranian assistance expands their capabilities and gives the regime additional ways to exert pressure.

A more coordinated regional response could make that strategy less rewarding.

Saudi air power, Emirati relationships with Yemeni forces and Egyptian maritime capabilities could contribute to a stronger collective effort. Better defenses and more effective interdiction could reduce Tehran’s ability to impose costs through its partners. This is a strategic possibility, rather than an established outcome.

There is an encouraging argument for President Donald Trump’s approach here. American pressure may achieve more when regional governments actively help constrain the threats confronting them. Partners that defend infrastructure and shipping could strengthen Washington’s leverage while sharing the burden of enforcement.

But regional cooperation requires more than assembling flags behind a communiqué.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have competing interests in Yemen. Yemeni factions disagree over the country’s future. Operations that overlook those divisions could produce temporary advances followed by renewed fragmentation. Lasting security will require political arrangements that local partners can sustain.

Nor should we assume a broader Saudi role means an imminent Saudi offensive against Iran. The clearest escalation concerns the Houthis. Direct attacks on Iranian territory would represent a separate decision with substantially greater consequences.

The danger is that escalation becomes its own justification, with each attack creating pressure for another response.

The better objective is a settlement that makes coercion harder to repeat. That means protecting commercial navigation, reducing attacks on civilian infrastructure and establishing credible consequences for renewed aggression.

Reuters reports that pressure on Saudi Arabia is intended partly to encourage Riyadh to seek relief for Iran from Washington’s blockade. Whether that coercion succeeds depends partly on Saudi resilience and allied cooperation.

Regional checks could therefore help bring peace, provided they serve achievable political ends. Saudi Arabia has compelling reasons to want this war finished. Its growing willingness to confront Iran’s network could improve the chances of a settlement that survives beyond the next ceasefire.

For the Persian Gulf, a stronger regional balance offers a plausible path toward greater stability. Its promise lies in making aggression less profitable — and negotiated restraint more attractive.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)